economy
Credit makes you accountable
The partners need to define boundaries for the partnership, which generally fall into the two dimensions of space and time. Space refers to what we agree to work on together.We may choose to work on one process improvement project, for example, and limit the partnership to that activity for now. Space may be limited to a function—for example, we may agree to work together in the manufacturing or marketing segment of the organization.
The other dimension is time. A time limit should be defined for the partnership—say, one year or for the life of a contractual agreement. A formal agreement can be renegotiated when the time limit expires. This helps partners be more realistic about what they can commit to providing. The longer the time limit, the greater the risk that the partnership will not accomplish its objectives as planned.
Being accountable now and planning what to do in the immediate future are more valuable to the partnership than making commitments based on fanciful predictions.
Estimating the level of fixed credit costs
On the macroeconomic level, capacity utilization rates are a good indicator for the level of fixed costs of the corporate sector, because the higher the utilization rates are, the less the costs of maintaining the infrastructure to generate one unit of output will be. Furthermore, an increase in industrial output hints at rising revenues and solid cash flows for the companies. This strengthens the companies’ abilities to service their debt. Therefore, credit spreads tend to tighten when capacity utilization and industrial production increase. Yet, rising cash flows tend to invoke business investment, particularly when capacity utilization rates are above average. Historically, levels above 80–82 percent have been a threshold above which the willingness to invest has increased significantly. Like capacity utilization rates, industrial production is a coincident indicator for the state of the economy. Across the business cycle, credit spreads tighten when industrial production grows, and sell off when the economy is doing poorly. Usually, when the economy is doing well, default rates tend to fall and the more positive sentiment usually leads to a lower level of risk aversion. Therefore credit investors settle with lower spreads than in times of poor economic performance.
What value is value?
One of the great marketing tools for stocks is the promise that there is a product that will work for every investor. Companies, brokerage firms, and mutual fund houses are constantly putting out new products to sell to discouraged investors. Financial professionals never miss an opportunity to sell a gullible investor a stock. They have invented a wrench to fit every nut.
No stock style or category eliminates the basic problem with stocks. Style is supposed to take the sting out of investing. Unfortunately, all stocks, regardless of category, are subject to the whims of the herd.
Utility stocks are marketed as steady income vehicles akin to Treasury bonds, yet they are often as volatile as tech stocks. Utility stock prices were cut in half when Three Mile Island threatened to ruin the power business.
They were whacked again when deregulation eliminated their monopoly position in many markets. Recently, increased gas prices sent the once steady and reliable PG&E into bankruptcy and put Southern California Edison on the brink of bankruptcy.
Each type of stock creates its own emotional complexities. Preferred stock was one of the marketer’s first products. When common stock investors realized that in financial stress, the company canceled dividends but paid bond interest, they sold stock and bought bonds. Companies then began to issue preferred stock with fixed dividends. Preferred stock dividends are paid when a company is in stress, but in bankruptcy, preferred stock is canceled, the same as common stock. Few investors are comfortable with this netherworld between bonds and stocks. The complexity of determining how to value preferred stock keeps many investors away. These days stock is considered a pure capital gains vehicle and bonds are used for income.
Problem with Complete powerlessness
Panic has a bad reputation as an investment emotion. Brokers, mutual fund companies, journalists, and others who profit from the stock market know that panicked investors often avoid stocks for decades. They portray panic as the worst response to powerlessness in all circumstances. However, panic is a healthy response to many powerless situations. Investors who panicked out of the stock market in 1929 at the low reacted well. The market continued down for three more years and never returned, on a sustained basis, to the 1929 low until the early 1950s. Tech investors who listened to the stock promoters and did not panic in April 2000 made a grave error. Many still sit on tech stocks that are worth a fraction of what they were in March 2000.
For the emotionally mature, powerlessness is a relief. There is great freedom in recognizing powerlessness, surrendering, and moving on. For the immature, powerlessness can lead to desperate acts, usually selfdestructive. Consider how you react to powerlessness.
Discretionary income is the key
With an increase in positive cash flow, you can direct more toward your debt. The more debt you pay down, the less interest accumulates during the following week, month, or year. The less interest accumulates, the greater the amount of your next payment that gets applied to the balance, and so on.
By increasing your positive cash flow, you can ultimately increase your debt payments. Instead of being caught in a downward and negative spiral, you find yourself in a positive, upward spiral. There is a name for this “positive cash flow” that you need to increase in order to eliminate your debt. It’s called discretionary income.
While the term sounds complex, it’s simple when you stop and think about it. It’s the income that’s left after all your required bills have been paid; you choose how to spend it. To accelerate the process of getting out of debt, you ultimately have to increase the amount of discretionary income left at the end of the month.
Voluntary rescue frameworks
Voluntary rescue frameworks aim to provide a stable environment in which all the participants involved in negotiating a company’s rescue can do so, without any fear of their relative positions being worsened as a result. Such frameworks generally share a number of important features:
- They tend to provide for principles or guidelines, rather than prescriptive rules. The key
objective is to retain flexibility so that the principles can be put into operation on a
case-by-case basis. - Stress is placed on achieving stability in a company’s business and, in particular, finances. This is usually achieved by the major financial creditors (at the very least) agreeing to a moratorium, or standstill, so that a company’s current situation and prospects can be ascertained.
- The gathering and sharing of reliable information about a company’s financial situation and future prospects is seen as a critical prerequisite for developing a sustainable solution.
- Risk-sharing. The participants agree to share equitably in the risks and rewards of the process.
- There is usually the need for an independent mediator in the event of disagreements
between the participants. For example, this role has traditionally been fulfilled by the Bank of England in the United Kingdom.